For the past several days, market has been unpleasantly volatile. A few of friends messaged me like: “ Are we going into recession?” Oh, it’s my concern too. Tariff uncertainties, sticky inflation,  budget deficit, hyper inflated market, all were bouncing all over, then followed one rule: “the Law of Universal Gravitation”. What will be my answers?

First let me ask a question: when the market popped to the all time high a month ago, no one asked me what was going on. Sure, it is well established in the field of psychology that human beings feel more pain when they lose money than when they feel joy when they win. This’s another topic for later. After all those years of working on the Street and seeing so many rounds of pops or drops, the recent drops left me apathetic.

I still remember vividly the stories in the era of 2008-2009 subprime mortgage crisis. After 158 years in business, Lehman Brothers had filed its bankruptcy. The stock price of my old company was in a bloodbath every day. My boss and his peers tried to fetch capital from Treasury Department.  My boss wrote in his writing, later published on a journal,(translated into Chinese via ChatGPT):

“在2008年12月华盛顿特区一个特别灰暗的日子里，当我们空手离开财政部时，我第一次开始思考次贷危机带来的教训。对于金融担保行业来说，政府对问题资产救助计划（TARP）资金的拒绝无异于判了公司死刑。而我已经下定决心要尽力维持它的生存，直到回天无力。“

After a year of battling, my old company had the same fate with many financial firms, pursuing bankruptcy protection. Since then, I’m so used to seeing pops and drops. Nothing new, greed and fear.

What’s my answer to friends’ question? I do not know what will be happening next day or next month. Even the most brilliant investor in our life time does not make market prediction. When the market tanks, ask yourself: What would Warren Buffett do? He already told us: “Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.” 

I think, time is an arbitrage advantage for long-term investors, as trends show that stocks increase in value over long periods of time. So please stay calm, think long term, even longer term and look for some bargains.

又： 看到老朋友用英语写博客， 很受鼓舞。决定东施笑颦。 可怎么读都觉得像研究报告。 

关注长期、更长期的投资目标

过去几天，市场一直不稳定。几个朋友给我发信息说：“我们会陷入衰退吗？” 哦，这也是我担心的问题。关税不确定性、顽固的通货膨胀、预算赤字、超膨胀的市场，所有这些都在波动，然后遵循一个规则：“万有引力定律”。我会怎么回答呢？

首先让我问一个问题：一个月前，当市场飙升至历史最高点时，没有人问我发生了什么。当然，心理学领域已经证实，人类在亏损时比在赚钱时感到更痛苦。这是另一个话题，以后再谈。在街头工作了这么多年，见过那么多次暴涨或暴跌，最近的暴跌让我无动于衷。

我仍然清楚地记得 2008-2009 年次贷危机时期的故事。雷曼兄弟公司在经营了 158 年后宣布破产。我原来的公司股价每天都在暴跌。我的老板和他的同事们试图从财政部获取资金。我的老板在后来发表在期刊上的文章中写道：

“在2008年12月华盛顿特区一个特别灰暗的日子里，当我们空手离开财政部时，我第一次开始思考次贷危机带来的教训。对于金融担保行业来说，政府对问题资产救助计划（TARP）资金的拒绝无异于判了公司死刑。而我已经下定决心要尽力维持它的生存，直到回天无力。“

经过一年的搏斗，我原来的公司和许多金融公司一样，申请破产保护。从那时起，我已经习惯了股价的起起落落。

我如何回答朋友的问题？我不知道明天或下个月会发生什么。即使是我们这个时代最睿智的投资者也不会对市场做出预测。当市场下跌时，问问自己：沃伦·巴菲特会怎么做？他已经告诉我们：“机会来得不频繁。当下着金雨时，拿出水桶，而不是顶针。”

我认为，时间是长期投资者的套利优势，因为趋势表明股票价值会在很长一段时间内上涨。所以, 请保持冷静，从长远甚至更长远的角度考虑，寻找一些打折货。